With the Ukraine-Russia war entering its third year, the global order seems to be fraying. Some believe it could snap altogether, and that these conflicts – relatively confined, so far – could tip over into a world war.

Grant Shapps, the Defence Secretary, has warned that in as little as five years time there could be multiple theatres of conflict spread across the globe: Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

“The world has moved from a post-war to a pre-war era,” he added. 

Along with the Middle East, many commentators see the fate of Ukraine as key. If it falls to Vladimir Putin, it could embolden Russia to attack a Nato country, or China to invade Taiwan – which the US has pledged to defend.

Denys Shmyhal, the Ukrainian prime minister, has warned there would be a “third world war” if Kyiv falls.

Figures in Nato and Western governments have predicted a war with Putin could break out in a matter of years.

However, Edward R Arnold, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, suggested that conflict with Russia was less likely as its armed forces were degraded by the strain of fighting in Ukraine.

“Vladimir Putin will be looking pretty closely at what happens in the Middle East,” he added.

“It’s all helping Putin at the moment because while focused on the Middle East we are not as focused as we have been on Ukraine.”