Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
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Andrew heads to Newmarket, Down Royal and the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar for his four recommended bets/trades on Saturday, November 2nd…
Newmarket’s turf resembled a ploughed field yesterday and it rode much softer than the official ‘good, good to soft in places’ verdict. The stalls were far side, and the runners mostly raced on that area of the track despite the 15-runner open – a 7f novice contest – being fought out by the three runners drawn closest to the stands’ rail (first three drawn 13, 14 and 15 once adjusted for the non-runner). The stalls are on the stands’ side today and we could see a strong rail bias, favouring high draws. It was also hard to come from off the pace yesterday and it could be a case of whoever gets to the ‘golden highway’ first proving hard to pass. DASHING DICK clocked a good time when a front-running second in a soft-ground 7f handicap at Yarmouth last week, he looks well drawn in stall 10 of 13 and should be first to the fence. Buy in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or back him each-way in the fixed odds betting.
Recommendation: Back DASHING DICK in Newmarket 1.07
With the drying ground not ideal for odds-on favourite GERRI COLOMBE, the best bet/trade in the 3m Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal looks to be veteran ENVOI ALLEN. The ten-year-old won this race on his reappearance two years ago and might not have been ideally served by having a prep run six weeks prior when a neck second to Gerri Colombe in last year’s renewal. His full record on his seasonal debut stands at 111113 (5-6) and while most of his wins have come over trips of about 2m4f, today’s trip on good-ish ground is no issue. Buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price.
Recommendation: Back ENVOI ALLEN in Down Royal 2.40
COGBURN, unbeaten in three turf sprints this year by an aggregate margin of nine lengths, is going to be hard to beat in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint but stall 9 is not ideal and he faces pace pressure from the likes of BRADSELL (stall 12 of 12) and BIG EVS (stall 11), also drawn wide. The value lies with backing two of the favourably drawn European raiders, namely Charlie Appleby’s STAR OF MYSTERY (stall 6) and Ralph Beckett’s STARLUST (stall 4) The first-named has proved very consistent in Meydan and the US this year, recording form figures of 1122313 (3-7), including a third place in the Grade 1 Jaipur Stakes at Saratoga, won by Cogburn in course record time. The three-year-old filly found one too good when odds-on in Grade 2 company at Keeneland last time but was left with plenty to do and it was a useful effort in the circumstances. STARLUST was only ninth in the Prix de l’Abbaye on his latest start, but the ground was softer than preferred, and he was badly hampered against the rail. The return to a left-handed track for the first time since his 24-1 third in the Juvenile Turf at last year’s Breeders’ Cup (run at Santa Anita) will suit and he looks over-priced. Buy both in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market.
Recommendation: Back STAR OF MYSTERY & STARLUST in Del Mar 7.41
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